Nepal in Numbers

By Edwin Koo

2010/07/22

If someone asked me to describe Nepal today, I would be tongue-tied, simply because of the rainy, mucky mess it’s in. To make matters worse, political idiots like me are getting entangled by the big words like “consensus” and “majority” governments. I’m sure these kids as confused as I am.

Nothing much has improved since this picture was taken in March 2008, , except that the political stakes with which politicians wager with, which includes precious funds and time for development.

So I thought the best way is to use numbers to re-organize a little.

Here’s Nepal in Numbers, in a nutshell:

• Madhav Kumar Nepal resigned on 30/06/2010
• The political parties tried to form a consensus government and agree on a new Prime Minister. They missed 2 deadlines in 2 weeks. By 13/07, President Ram Baran Yadav says forget consensus, we go for majority (what’s that again?)
• Nepal’s 601-member Constituent Assembly (which doubles as a Parliament) goes to the voting box to elect a new Prime Minister on 21/07/2010, but there was no majority, so no new Prime Minister
• Why no majority? The next Prime Minister needed a 301-300 margin to win.
• There were 3 candidates in the race: Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) from the Maoists, Jhalanath Khanal from the UML, and Ram Chandra Poudel from Nepali Congress (NC).
• Prachanda got 242 out of 592 votes
• NC’s Paudel had 124 votes in his favour
• Jhalanath Khanal (UML) pulled out, leaving 2 candidates to slug it out. As a result, the election postponed 2 days
• Why did the UML pull out? Because they had 0% chance of winning.
• Maoists have 237 seats (39.4%). UML has 108 (17.9%). NC has 114 (19%).
• The wildcard, really is the Madhesi alliance of parties, which hold 82 (13.6%) seats. Madhesis belong to the Terai plains, and have been long excluded from politics until 2006. They have stayed “neutral” till now.
• So the Maoists really need the Madhesis to have “majority”. 237+82= 319!
• Of course, neither the UML nor the NC wants that to happen. Even if UML and NC join hands, that’s 114+108= 222 (36.9%). So everyone’s wooing the wildcard underdogs, in order to become top dog once again.
• So now we see why Khanal (UML) decided to stay “neutral”. Being neutral means being the 82+108= 190 (31.6%) who can have a higher chance of winning the gambit.  In short, it’s not easy to be King, but easier to be king-makers
• And since the King needs the makers more than the makers need the King, then being king-maker gets you the best bargain. So I expect the king-makers (UML and Madhesis) to be extracting at least 1 pound of flesh from the next King… er hmmm, I mean, Prime Minister.

• In the meantime, while all these numbers are being crunched:
• 49% of children under 5 suffer from stunting
• 26% of rural population have decent toilet facilities
• Average income remains at slightly more than US$1/day
• 1 million people in Kathmandu and many more millions outside the capital struggle to get drinking water everyday

That’s Nepal for you, in numbers. Questions, anyone?