Nepal in Numbers

By Edwin Koo

2010/07/22

If someone asked me to describe Nepal today, I would be tongue-tied, simply because of the rainy, mucky mess it’s in. To make matters worse, political idiots like me are getting entangled by the big words like “consensus” and “majority” governments. I’m sure these kids as confused as I am.

Nothing much has improved since this picture was taken in March 2008, , except that the political stakes with which politicians wager with, which includes precious funds and time for development.

So I thought the best way is to use numbers to re-organize a little.

Here’s Nepal in Numbers, in a nutshell:

• Madhav Kumar Nepal resigned on 30/06/2010
• The political parties tried to form a consensus government and agree on a new Prime Minister. They missed 2 deadlines in 2 weeks. By 13/07, President Ram Baran Yadav says forget consensus, we go for majority (what’s that again?)
• Nepal’s 601-member Constituent Assembly (which doubles as a Parliament) goes to the voting box to elect a new Prime Minister on 21/07/2010, but there was no majority, so no new Prime Minister
• Why no majority? The next Prime Minister needed a 301-300 margin to win.
• There were 3 candidates in the race: Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) from the Maoists, Jhalanath Khanal from the UML, and Ram Chandra Poudel from Nepali Congress (NC).
• Prachanda got 242 out of 592 votes
• NC’s Paudel had 124 votes in his favour
• Jhalanath Khanal (UML) pulled out, leaving 2 candidates to slug it out. As a result, the election postponed 2 days
• Why did the UML pull out? Because they had 0% chance of winning.
• Maoists have 237 seats (39.4%). UML has 108 (17.9%). NC has 114 (19%).
• The wildcard, really is the Madhesi alliance of parties, which hold 82 (13.6%) seats. Madhesis belong to the Terai plains, and have been long excluded from politics until 2006. They have stayed “neutral” till now.
• So the Maoists really need the Madhesis to have “majority”. 237+82= 319!
• Of course, neither the UML nor the NC wants that to happen. Even if UML and NC join hands, that’s 114+108= 222 (36.9%). So everyone’s wooing the wildcard underdogs, in order to become top dog once again.
• So now we see why Khanal (UML) decided to stay “neutral”. Being neutral means being the 82+108= 190 (31.6%) who can have a higher chance of winning the gambit.  In short, it’s not easy to be King, but easier to be king-makers
• And since the King needs the makers more than the makers need the King, then being king-maker gets you the best bargain. So I expect the king-makers (UML and Madhesis) to be extracting at least 1 pound of flesh from the next King… er hmmm, I mean, Prime Minister.

• In the meantime, while all these numbers are being crunched:
• 49% of children under 5 suffer from stunting
• 26% of rural population have decent toilet facilities
• Average income remains at slightly more than US$1/day
• 1 million people in Kathmandu and many more millions outside the capital struggle to get drinking water everyday

That’s Nepal for you, in numbers. Questions, anyone?

Monsoon Madness

By Edwin Koo

July 17, 2010

These days, I find myself complaining about the rain. The monsoon has arrived, very often filling the khaaldos (potholes) with mucky water. Riding a motorbike in the monsoon is often a very wet experience, even with your raincoat on. If you don’t get wet from above, you get wet from below.

Perhaps, it’s symptomatic of Nepal. If Nepal was a bhato (road), it is one pothole-ridden dirt track, squishy with muck. And since it’s the only road around, everyone gets wet and muddy.

Workers clear the choke in a sewage outlet in Dhobighat, Lalitpur. Most of the drainage system in Kathmandu are unable to cope with the sudden increase in rainfall during the monsoon season. Nepal. 2010/07/11.

Of late, the road to “peace” has become the most bumpy of rides since Nepal became the world’s newest republic in April 2008. It was first signaled by the expiry of the May 28 deadline – when a new Constitution was supposed to have been born. Instead, the so-called leaders of this country decided to strike a new deal – and extended the term of the 600-member Constitutional Assembly by a year.

A month later, Prime Minister Madav Kumar Nepal surprised everyone by resigning, leaving the “peace process” in limbo, and leaving everyone to guess what kind of political chess move he was trying out.

Then came the national sport called “extending the deadline”, made popular by the anti-climax of a historical milestone of May 28. On July 1, President Ram Baran Yadav told the political parties to get together, have a nice picnic, shake hands, exchange hugs, make peace, and agree to team up to form a new consensus government.

To be exact, Yadav gave them a week to do these things. When 7 July came, the parties missed the deadline. Yadav plays nice, tells the boys to try again for the next five days. 12 July came, and still no consensus.

The parties are still haggling over the same “issues” since 2006- how to rehabilitate the Maoist fighters, what to do with the Youth Communist League cadres, and how to deal with the forced seizure of properties, etc. Actually, to cut through the clutter, the main issue is, “who gets to be Prime Minister”.

So Yadav finally decides to call a spade a spade, and tells the parties to elect a new Prime Minister by 21 July. It doesn’t have to be a “consensus” government anymore, Yadav says, since pleasing everyone is impossible. Instead, let’s go back to the “majority” government system, in which “winner takes all”, so the boys can have some mud-slinging fun while they slug it out.

So in 2 months, we have had 4 extensions of deadlines, a resignation of a Prime Minister, and a full-blown circus show of bickering politicians, which unfortunately, occupies many pages in the daily newspapers.

In the midst of this impasse, the Finance Minister managed to table a truncated budget of NPR 110.21 billion to keep the government running. The Foreign Ministry also managed to award the Machine-Readable Passport tender to a French company, much to the ire of Big Brother India.

In fact, such important matters are keeping the ministers so occupied, there is really not much time to consider the perennial food crisis, caused mainly by market manipulated inflation. And where is there time to look into the drinking water crisis, both in Kathmandu and far-flung places like Illam? Moreover, who would have time to look at the issue of forestry officers deforesting Eastern Nepal (wasn’t that their job description?)

As Nepal wades helplessly in a monsoon season of anarchical chaos, it is no surprise that a Maoist commander decides to go rogue again, robbing Chinese merchants in broad daylight. And that Maoist fighters can die mysteriously when they are supposedly under the “protection” of the United Nations.

Meanwhile, the “peace process” has once again, become “in peril” for the umpteenth time. By the way, what is a  “peace process”? A euphemism for “we’re trying to make things right, but we’re still trying to figure out how”?

While the foreign consultants and pundits are busy administering their “cures” to the problem, “peace” will remain elusive, because the honchos in charge aren’t exactly concerned about real peace.

Tens of thousands of ordinary Nepalis took out a peace rally on May 07, 2010 to call for a resumption of daily life following a week-long Maoist bandh.

Stop the Blame-Game

By Edwin Koo

17 May, 2010

A few days ago, I read in The Himalayan Times that my journalist friend was issued a death threat by “Maoists”.

This is a serious matter, especially in Nepal, which has seen several media workers killed in the last year.

Obviously, these guys weren’t very happy with my friend for a story about their ‘donation drive’.  In a nutshell, the cadres allegedly demanded Rs 50,000 (US$650) from the Drinking Water Consumer Committee –  as a ‘donation’.

Rewind back to the days of the People’s War (1996-2006),  when it was not uncommon for Maoists to ask trekkers for donations. The comrades were so organized, they even issued a ‘receipt’ to ensure the donors are not subject to similar obligations. Tourists back then would keep these receipts as memorabilia to say “I’ve been there, done that”.

As a pragmatic Singaporean with a leftist leaning, I can understand the need for ‘donations’ in those tumultous years. The Maoists were underground rebels, with a guerilla army to feed. Whether or not you support or slam their cause, ‘donations’ were necessary, simply because it was a matter of survival.

Fast forward to present day. More than three years after the November 2006 Comprehensive Peace Accord was signed, an epidemic of “donation-mania” has returned. This is happening, despite the fact that Maoist party have given up their arms, entered mainstream politics, and even won an election.  The state is paying salaries to the 19,000  interned Maoist combatants, on top of forking out for their food and shelter.

So why then, do these ‘Maoist’ cadres need more ‘donations’, in this time of relative peace?

No one really knows, but my guess is that some cadres are filling their own pockets using their party’s clout. It would not be surprising that these extortionists are fishing in troubled waters, far from the supervision of the party whip in Kathmandu. Presently, Nepal is more an anarchy  than a democracy, especially in the plains of the Terai (southern Nepal, bordering India).

Before this episode, threats and extortions have already become the order of the day in the wild wild south, with armed bandits making phone threats in the day and waylaying buses in the night.

Hence I hesitate to label this a ‘Mao-badhi‘ (Maoists, in Nepali) problem.  The real problem is one of lawlessness and a weak state. How did the state organs even allow such threats and killings go unpunished, whoever committed them?

The alleged extortionist could have come from any outfit – this one happened to be Maoist-affiliated. It would be short-sighted of local media to lash out at the Maoists as a knee-jerk reaction. Report the facts, and let the truth do the rest. If the Maoist leaders care enough for their next electoral results, they will rein in their errant cadres with the Red whip.

Of course, it doesn’t help that some media always seem too happy to throw a “Maoist” label to every incident reported.

This brand  of “instigative journalism“, would only create a “siege mentality” around the Maoists, who may feel they are being victimized by a “malicious media” out to make them scapegoat for every wrongdoing perpetrated. In a vicious cycle, the attention is taken away from the extortionists, who continue their lawless reign once the dust settles.

It was a good thing that my journalist friend came out in the open to expose these threats. It was only right, as an advocate of truth, to let truth speak for itself. I still worry about the safety of the journalists in the Terai, who continue to work fearlessly in a very hostile environment.

What I sincerely hope is that this episode doesn’t become another round of “Mao-baddies”-bashing. It may be true that a number of incidents can be linked back to the Maoists, with perpetrators sitting in positions of power. It may also be true that Maoist supremo “Prachanda”, has on many public occasions threatened the media to stop negatively portraying the comrades. But I wouldn’t say the media is totally faultless – especially those culpable of instigative journalism.

Simply put, not all media is “bad”, so there is no excuse to “punish” the media in general. Similarly, a few bad Maoists doesn’t make all Maoists, baddies. So let’s all behave and stop this nonsensical blame-game.

These are my Maoist friends, and they are NOT extortionists or murderers. They are freedom fighters who spent their youth fighting for a cause they believed in

Come to New Nepal!

By Edwin Koo

May 13, 2010

Trekkers account for about 20, 40 or 60 percent of the tourist arrivals in Nepal, depending on whom you ask.

A study focused on the “Prospects of Mountaineering and Trekking Tourism in Nepal”  dated Aug 2008 states that trekking hovers at 16-19 percent of tourist arrivals between 2003-2007.

Another work-in-progress website, which quite obviously has a direct stake in trekking industry, states a whopping 60 percent of tourists come to trek in Nepal.

Last month, I added to that statistic (whatever it is), taking a trek to Langtang National Park, a little north of Kathmandu, and the only trekking route that you probably can’t fly to (Pokhara, Manang, Jomsom of the Annapurna trek and Lukla, trailhead for the Everest trek, are all accessible by domestic flights).

The 8-day affair took my wife and I from the lush forests of the mid-hills (about 2000m above sea level)to the snowy regions beyond Langtang (above 4000m). We carried our own luggage – tents, sleeping bags, pots and pans, etc, walking up to 10 hours on the most gruelling days. My bag probably weighed 20kg; my wife’s load about 10kg. It wasn’t an easy walk because of our insistence on doing it “independently” , sans porters and guide. But all in all, it was great fun, an experience that yields fruits far sweeter than the physically punishing process.

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No matter what the real statistic is, trekking is indelibly linked to Nepal’s tourism. Seldom do I come across a visitor who comes to Nepal but doesn’t go on a  a trek, be it a 3-day quickie or a 3-month expedition.

Trekking is probably so important to the Nepalese economy, a recent ban threatened by a Maoist-affiliated union in the Annapurna region created quite an uproar.  “This will send a negative message in the international arena and this will be very bad for Nepal’s tourism campaign,” Mr Rajendra Bajgain,the general secretary of Nepal’s Trekking Agents Association of Nepal (TAAN) told local daily Republica. Mr Bajgain was, of course, referring to Nepal Tourism Year 2011.

Just as the nationalistic lingo Naya Nepal (new Nepal) has become a running joke among locals, Nepal Tourism Year 2011 has become a close second in drawing sniggers from the bhai next door.

English weekly newspaper Nepali Times ran a front page story showing former Prime Minister and Maoist head honcho Pushpa Kamal Dahal signing a memorandum titled “Together for Tourism”. Its content reads like this: “To make the campaign successful, we express our full commitment not to allow bandas (shutdowns), hartals (strikes) and other activities to take place that will affect (mainly) tourists and tourism services.”  The document quaintly spots a logo on the lower right hand corner “Naturally Nepal:  once is not enough”.

Naturally, once is not enough in Nepal.  Especially when one is talking about bandas and hartals.

When we returned from trekking in Langtang just in time for yet another hartal. For six days (May 2-8), all businesses were shut down and traffic stayed off the roads.  Interestingly, the Maoists allowed the airport and hotels to operate during the strike, perhaps an attempt at keeping their word.

And though many tourists cancelled their trips, some hardcore ones continue to arrive. The ones that booked into higher-end hotels were ferried directly from the arrivals halls in vans and buses marked “Tourists only”. Those on a more modest budget found rickshaws and tricycles (usually used for carrying vegetables – which were not allowed into Kathmandu!) waiting eagerly outside the airport to ferry them and their luggage for anywhere between 200-1000 rupees (US$3-15) per trip.

To be fair, the tourists who were in Nepal during the hartal seem to have enjoyed themselves.

No taxis? No problem! Rent a couple of mountain bikes and go hartal-watch! What’s more, the bike helmets protect from pelting stones and tear gas canisters! Did we also mention tear gas canisters make for cool souvenirs? Plus, no more boring  landscape pictures! Protesters waving Maoist flags make for far cooler travel pictures!

That was indeed the vibe I got from the tourists while I went about town photographing the hartal.

What is rather interesting is that Nepal has never allowed its guests to be hurt in any of these agitations. When my friend asked on FB how were foreigners faring, I told her that every foreigner here belonged to a privileged, untouchable class.  Though another good friend of mine was quick to point out that once in 2005, two German trekkers were hurt in an explosion in the Solukhumbhu area.  OK, safe to say that incidences are so far and few, one actually remembers them when they do happen.

Well, good news amongst the bad news is: 1 million tourists for NTY 2011 still seems a plausible goal.

Though, instead of asking for another 220 milion rupees (US$3.14 million) to be spent on boring TV ads showing mountains and elephants, perhaps the money can be put to better use in an alternative campaign, with a different tag line: Come to New Nepal – Naturally the Land of Hartals, Once is NOT Enough!

Aliens invade Kathmandu

Maoists burn an effigy of a devil, used to symbolised Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal. Kathmandu, Nepal. 2010/05/04.

By Edwin Koo

10 May 2010

To the outside world, Nepal seems like a very dangerous place these days, infested with stick-wielding Maoists ready to thrash an unsuspecting passer-by.

The international media has painted a portrait of utter chaos, as if the country has plummeted into a full-blown civil war, not unlike Somalia. Even the locals in Kathmandu are starting to believe that they should fear for their lives – the Reds are taking over. In the days before May 2 strike, the biggest supermarket in town – Bhat Bateni SuperMarket – was raided by panick-stricken shoppers.

The truth is, it isn’t as bad as it seems.

The unknown is always scary. And the Maoists who have come to Kathmandu to enforce the aam hartal (general strike), certainly looked, and even smelled different from the Kathmanduites. If even Nepalis can feel xenophobic about their own countrymen, I cannot blame foreigners for believing that Nepal has been overrun by aliens from another planet.

A week before the strike began, I was trekking with my wife in Langtang Valley, a remote and mountainous region north of Kathmandu.

It was up there, 2000m above sea level,  in the scenic valley of the Tamangs, where we started catching wind of the Red invasion.

Nepalis carrying haversacks smaller than your average shopping bag, were marching in  groups of 5-10. It was unusual to see local people trekking. Most groups would have a leader bearing a red Maoist flag walking in front.

Just out of curiousity, I asked a group where they were heading.

“Kathmandu,” they said (with silly grin)

I asked them how long they will take.

“15 days” (without batting an eyelid)

Mine, these guys are serious.

Maoists trekking 15 days to Kathmandu

Returning to Syabrubesi after our 8-day trek, the news of the Red invasion was confirmed. Buses throughout the country were ordered to carry only Maoists for the next three days, so the 100,000 plus cadres and supporters can attend May Day Rally in the capital. We were faced with a very real threat of being stuck in Syabrubesi until cows come home.

Eventually, we got lucky. At 6:30am, we managed to get seats on the only bus from Syabrubesi that was allowed to depart for Kathmandu. I had a hunch something big was about to happen after May Day, and boy,  was I glad to get that 10-hour, back-breaking, butt-numbing ride back.

News soon broke that the Maoists had set out their ultimatum – the Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal must quit, and the government must accept their demands, or else, an indefinite strike would begin May 2.  And when the Maoists called for a hartal (strike), they mean business.

For the next six days, all motor vehicles would stay off the roads. Schools and shops would close. The roads of the capital, once throttled with smoke-spewing vehicles, were now choked with Reds, patrolling the streets wielding sticks and flags, singing revolutionary songs, chanting anti-government slogans, or merely sitting down at major junctions and blocking access.

Wherever I went,  I saw faces of disaffection.  Most of those from outside the Valley belonged to a class of dispossessed people, ignored by the state, denied of their rights and opportunities.  The only thing tougher than being a Nepali, is being a poor and ignored Nepali.

When these people turned up at the doorstep of Kathmandu, many of their countrymen couldn’t recognize them. Kathmanduites mostly lived in their own world. Many in Kathmandu’s elites have visited India, Malaysia and Thailand , but have never been to the less developed parts of their country.

Therefore, when a daily newspaper reported that  the Maoist protesters were coerced into coming into the Valley, it became a widely-agreed fact among the city-dwellers. The story goes, that as the Maoists marched towards the capital, they forced each family to contribute one supporter or pay a 5000-rupee (S$100) fine.

Going by less-than-enthusiastic faces of some of the Maoist “supporters”, and also the Maoist track record of using the stick, yes, there is a grain of truth in the reports. But to think that all these 100,000 “aliens” are simply dumb villagers coerced into coming to the capital – it simply doesn’t add up. Many of them had to walk for days on end. “Some have defied the whip of the Youth Force (militant youth wing of UML party) to respond to the call of their local Maoist commissars” – to quote a prominent local columnist. The fact is, many of them probably came, because they believed their presence would make a difference.

To focus on the intent of the Maoist leaders for mobilising 100,000 protesters is to miss the whole point of this historical event. I do not sympathise with their leaders, nor their hardcore stick-wielding cadres, who have a vested interest to prove their “loyalty” to a red cause.

But there is a certain truth to the red-laced rhetoric that spurs the dispossessed into action.

The fact that the strike even took place, highlights a larger problem: that in Nepal, already one of the world’s poorest countries, there is a gaping rift between the “haves” and the “have nots”. It was not Madhav Nepal alone, but all the leaders sitting pretty at Singha Durbar playing musical chairs for the past decade, that have robbed the people of their rights to better lives.

Perhaps, it is time to look into the eyes of these “aliens” and see what they say, beyond the next headline.

Portraits of Disaffection: Maoist protesters felt empowered when they shut down the capital.